U.S. BUSINESS CYCLE CONTRACTION DOSSIER · JULY 1981 - NOVEMBER 1982
1981-1982 Volcker Disinflation Recession
Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker raised the Federal Funds Rate above 19% to break entrenched 1970s inflation. 30-year mortgage rates exceeded 16.6%, and unemployment reached a post-WWII high of 10.8% in late 1982.
Contraction Duration 16 Months July 1981 to November 1982
Real GDP Drawdown -2.6% Peak-to-trough contraction
Peak Unemployment 10.8% Civilian labor force
CPI Inflation Rate 6.2% During contraction
Compare 1981-1982 Volcker Disinflation Recession Against All U.S. Recessions (1929-2020)
| Recession | Peak to Trough | Duration | Real GDP Drop | Peak Unemployment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic Shock | February 2020 - April 2020 | 2 mos | -2.2% | 14.8% |
| 2007-2009 Great Recession & Global Financial Crisis | December 2007 - June 2009 | 18 mos | -4.3% | 10% |
| 2001 Dot-Com Bust & 9/11 Recession | March 2001 - November 2001 | 8 mos | -0.3% | 6.3% |
| 1990-1991 Savings & Loan and Gulf War Recession | July 1990 - March 1991 | 8 mos | -1.4% | 7.8% |
| 1981-1982 Volcker Disinflation Recession | July 1981 - November 1982 | 16 mos | -2.6% | 10.8% |
| 1980 Energy & Credit Controls Recession | January 1980 - July 1980 | 6 mos | -2.2% | 7.8% |
| 1973-1975 Oil Embargo & Stagflation Recession | November 1973 - March 1975 | 16 mos | -3.1% | 9% |
| 1969-1970 Recession | December 1969 - November 1970 | 11 mos | -0.2% | 6.1% |
| 1957-1958 Eisenhower Recession | August 1957 - April 1958 | 8 mos | -3% | 7.5% |
| 1953-1954 Post-Korean War Recession | July 1953 - May 1954 | 10 mos | -1.9% | 6.1% |
| 1945 Post-World War II Demobilization Recession | February 1945 - October 1945 | 8 mos | -11.6% | 4.3% |
| 1937-1938 Roosevelt Recession | May 1937 - June 1938 | 13 mos | -3.3% | 19% |
| The Great Depression (1929-1933) | August 1929 - March 1933 | 43 mos | -26.7% | 24.9% |